Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 38.111974 41.384530 44.983337 49.268772 54.279036 60.010711 67.152273
2025-05-25 32.809609 36.986204 41.889371 48.182649 56.221965 66.416343 80.808283
2025-06-01 29.657716 34.205469 39.766576 47.263196 57.444530 71.375077 93.117093
2025-06-08 27.153955 31.818718 37.689377 45.891138 57.558902 74.518933 103.350914
2025-06-15 26.248221 31.293512 37.847886 47.383968 61.711286 84.153989 126.891495
2025-06-22 24.925464 30.078203 36.924474 47.183528 63.243684 89.929992 145.901924
2025-06-29 23.586971 28.724374 35.668354 46.315215 63.538041 93.590956 162.245919
2025-07-06 22.249007 27.275879 34.156409 44.887468 62.683980 94.949946 174.059667
2025-07-13 21.914178 27.175436 34.535852 46.366883 66.893025 106.891341 220.107500
2025-07-20 21.467743 26.880419 34.594676 47.323423 70.316493 118.262988 275.893169
2025-07-27 20.991223 26.507216 34.498756 47.999110 73.312392 129.674413 347.513245
2025-08-03 20.370548 25.887336 33.979680 47.899315 74.773743 137.909589 420.789279
2025-08-10 19.607213 25.043116 33.095984 47.150916 74.947172 143.298729 495.318570
2025-08-17 18.846677 24.171226 32.123472 46.171618 74.523679 147.061898 573.940775
2025-08-24 18.172639 23.397540 31.261164 45.313933 74.237322 151.213489 675.727574
2025-08-31 17.457967 22.533737 30.210935 44.033881 72.853879 151.618064 749.605031
2025-09-07 17.341185 22.566389 30.599187 45.426548 77.719267 174.626863 1347.334661
2025-09-14 16.920777 22.114984 30.169848 45.239674 78.864799 185.440001 2049.344439
2025-09-21 16.409407 21.503695 29.445949 44.429709 78.375237 189.847307 2831.948743
2025-09-28 15.829838 20.768070 28.484892 43.096407 76.420338 187.597785 3281.481390
2025-10-05 15.777170 20.849208 28.891980 44.477924 81.597248 219.451212 40250.390439
2025-10-12 15.636968 20.785550 29.047867 45.370104 85.705083 250.964012 NaN
2025-10-19 15.458194 20.652577 29.075587 45.999830 89.241541 284.069856 NaN